1,500 is average

Every player starts there. Going up means they have beaten the opponent and the situation more often than expected. Going down means the opposite. Pitchers are supposed to win most plate appearances — a 1,500 pitcher is league average, not “barely hanging on.”

Form — the hot/cold tape

Each plate appearance is scored by what happened versus who they faced. Beating a good pitcher moves you more than beating a replacement arm. The same is true in reverse.

• A home run counts much more than a single. Extra-base hits beat walks. A double play is worse than a regular out.
• A strikeout is just an out on this tape. Contact heaters do not leapfrog real damage.
• Hot streaks fade. Starters fade slower than relievers because a starter’s sample is the job.
• Use this to time adds, drops, and streaming — not to decide who the best player is.

Production — the fantasy rank

Batters: how many runs they actually created (or failed to) given the base-out state and the park. A bases-loaded single is not a leadoff single. A homer at Coors is discounted; the same swing in Seattle is credited more. A rocket that finds a glove still gets some credit. A bloop that falls in does not get a full one. Fielding errors are not a free win.

Pitchers: we do not rank them on that same raw run-value number. Workhorses face more hitters, so the raw number gets dragged down by volume. Production for pitchers is “are you missing bats and throwing strikes, and has recent form agreed?” Sort SwStr% or CSW% when you are hunting strikeouts.

Two-way players and the daily chart

Hitting and pitching are separate ratings. A two-way player shows a TWP badge and appears on both boards. The candlestick chart is Form for that day: green means they closed higher than they opened. The moving averages just smooth the noise.

One skill question per tab

Talent is not a third overall ranking. Each board answers a single question against this season’s league, not against last year’s averages. A player can be Elite in Power and Average in Discipline. That is the point.

Hitters

• Contact — who squares it up in the zone and does not chase. Use it for average / OBP stability.
• Power — barrels, hard contact, exit velocity. Use it for HR / SLG upside.
• Discipline — who stays in the zone. Use it when you care about walks and chase-driven slumps.
• Clutch — only plate appearances with a runner on second or third. Ignore it until the sample is real; it is a small-sample tape, not a skill grade.

Pitchers

• Stuff — who misses bats. First stop for strikeout streams.
• BIP Suppression — who gets weak contact when the ball is put in play. Complements Stuff; it is not ERA.
• Command — first-pitch strikes and induced chase. Who works ahead and expands the zone.
• Clutch — same RISP-only tape as hitters. Same warning: wait for a real sample.

One plate appearance, not a betting line

Pick a batter and a pitcher. The model estimates how that single PA is likely to end — strikeout, walk, single, extra-base hit, home run, or out. It leans on the batter’s production (do they do damage?) and the pitcher’s skill (are they missing bats?), then nudges for park, platoon, and weather.

An even matchup looks like a normal big-league plate appearance. A large gap shifts those odds toward the better player. This is directional. It is not a sportsbook price.

What to read on the result

• Event probabilities — the actual forecast. If you only look at one number, look at expected wOBA.
• Matchup Lift vs Neutral — how this pairing differs from an average PA, in percentage points. Positive means that event is more likely here.
• Favor — who the model likes in this pairing. Neutral means the gap is small.

Park, platoon, weather

Coors makes hits and homers more likely. A pitcher-friendly park does the opposite. Same-handed matchups help the pitcher; opposite-handed matchups help the batter. Weather only applies when we have a reading for that park. None of this changes the stored ELO ratings.

Pitcher vs Team

Same model, run against every qualified hitter on a roster. Favor here is relative to that lineup, not versus the league. The guy marked Batter is the one this pitcher should fear most on that team, even if the whole lineup is weak. Home park defaults to the opponent; change it when the series is the other way.